Figure 10 : Forecasts of the ‘reported number of cases’ for Italy, issued on day 35 (27 March).

The blue symbols show the observations (from WHO) used to estimate the ensemble of 30 logistic curves. The red symbols show the observations not used to compute the curves, covering days 36-60. Five black curves are shown: the minimum and maximum values (dotted lines), the median (solid line), and the 25th and 75th quantiles (dashed lines).