Figure 5 : COVID-19 China.

Ensemble-based probabilistic forecast issued on day 22. The blue symbols show the observations used to estimate the ensemble of 30 logistic curves. The red symbols show the reported number of confirmed cases of days 23-to-45. Five black curves are shown: the minimum and maximum values (dotted lines), the median (solid line), and the 25th and 75th quantiles (dashed lines).